Cases Are Not Surging or Raging, Testing Is
Posted November 20, 2020
Below, you will find the latest installment of William Briggs’ COVID series.
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Because most have no familiarity with medical statistics, they are unable to put the coronavirus into perspective.
The media and government have been shockingly remiss in providing this education, too, having more interest in panicked presentation of numbers and rushing headlong into the next “solution.”
We showed in The Price of Panic that lockdowns do not work and cause great harm. The WHO agrees. In a 2019 report, quoted often here and in the book, they recommend not locking down during a pandemic, especially when it becomes clear what the various mortality rates are. These are presented below.
Lockdowns cost lives, they do not save them.
The public, media, and government alike seem to have adopted a zero-tolerance policy on COVID deaths, or even “cases.”
The scare quotes are necessary because what you hear called “cases” are largely not. They are mostly merely infections, the majority of which are past, mild, asymptomatic, and false — i.e., not real.
There are also many repeats on the same individuals reported as “new.” A case is an individual seeking and requiring treatment, which most people infected with this bug do not.
We will never reach zero COVID deaths. We have never reached zero flu and pneumonia deaths. And never will. We have had a flu vaccine for half a century, but deaths have not ceased.
There are many reasons why you hear about “surges” in “cases,” and even hospitalizations, some of which are discussed below. But one is because deaths peak each and every winter, because we all go inside and spread bugs among ourselves.
People have forgotten there is such a thing as “cold and flu season.” Our seasonal voluntary lockdowns spread bugs.
How is it, then, that the government “solution” to stop disease is the very thing they used to know caused it?
Lockdown 1.0 did not stop the bug from spreading. Summer did. Just as summer stops the flu and other viruses from doing most of their damage. (There are some twists to this because of timing of how the coronavirus bug started late and migrated throughout the country. But it now appears to fit the normal seasonal pattern.)
We never panic about the flu, yet we do about the coronavirus. Hospitals are routinely “overrun” every year because of flu, yet none remember press headlines about this — and there have been plenty.
It’s not that the press didn’t try to juice a panic before. It’s that their efforts failed, because we are so used to flu.
Below you will see the Perspective Plot, which contrasts COVID deaths with flu and pneumonia and all other deaths. Here, some official CDC numbers (source links below), the calendar year sum of flu and pneumonia deaths: 2020 is partial through week 38, after which CDC stopped reporting these numbers separately (no COVID included).
Shall we lockdown in perpetuity to avoid these deaths? This question is arch, because it is self-lockdowns responsible for most of them. For comparison, as of this date (Monday night), CDC says there were 228,444 deaths with or from COVID (they say “involving”). There is a concern that some of this number are better classed as flu or pneumonia, though, as discussed below.
In any case, because of massive increases in testing of people who have no symptoms, we are registering low-grade and even non-existent infections, which the media are calling “cases.” People hear “case” and they think a person near death and lucky to escape it. This is not so.
We must rid ourselves of the false idea that we can reach zero COVID deaths. This coronavirus is, as the name says, a coronavirus, which are common (and usually cause colds). It’s not going to go away.
But it will fade into the background — as soon as we stop giving in to fear.
You can go here to read the full update.
Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy